Get Alternative Theories of Output, Unemployment, and Inflation PDF

By Christine Sauer

ISBN-10: 3540509089

ISBN-13: 9783540509080

ISBN-10: 3642456626

ISBN-13: 9783642456626

by Jerome L. Stein Disenchantment with Keynesian econollics constructed through the post-1968 interval whilst the speed of development of output declined, the speed of unemployment rose, and the speed of inflation elevated within the U.S. and in different international locations. This paradox, referred to as stagflation, was once inconsistent with the guiding principle of Keynesian economics that cyclical movemants in costs and output relative to their respective tendencies are certainly correlated. A seek happened for a extra passable thought of macroeconomics which may clarify the anomaly of stagflation and the saw fiscal phenomena. the hot Classical Economics (NCE) built because the overall rejection of Keynesian economics. The Keynesians claimed that their call for administration rules contributed to the obsolescence of the company cycle and effectively eradicated the distance among complete employment (potential) output and actusl output. The NCE argued simply the other: the unemplo~nt fee or development price of actual output is insensitive to systematic call for administration regulations [Lucas; Sargent and Wallace].

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Extra info for Alternative Theories of Output, Unemployment, and Inflation in Germany: 1960–1985

Sample text

The specified forecasting equation includes lagged money growth, two lags of short-term nominal interest rates, two lags of inflation, and three lags of real government budget deficits scaled by potential real output. The RENR hypothesis is tested by including potential real GNP (approximated by a linear time trend) and lagged values of anticipated and unanticipated money growth in the regression equation for real output. Estimation proceeds after correcting for negligible first-order autocorrelation, and the Theil criterion is used to determine the lag length and the degree of the polynomial.

In both versions of the output equation, the terms of trade coefficient is significantly positive as predicted. In addition, unanticipated import price inflation is significant in the imperfect information version, whereas unanticipated domestic inflation is not significant. This lends support to an open economy version of the Lucas supply curve. Tests of zero and cross-equation substantiate these findings. restrictions in the nested model further While the model excludes several variables such as monetary and fiscal policy variables that have a potential influence on real GNP, it explicitely incorporates a transmission mechanism for foreign economic disturbances on the supply side of the economy.

Data from 1954-76 (1) using errors-in-variables and substitution methods. Despite some misspecification problems, the model predicts the behavior of major macrovariables reasonably well. The exchange rate regime has important policy implications. Under fixed exchange rates, only fiscal policy has real effects unless a vicious circle of devaluation/inflation is triggered by an unexpected fiscal expansion. Under flexible exchange rates, both inflation and interest rates increase in response to expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, causing a short-run contraction of the economy.

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Alternative Theories of Output, Unemployment, and Inflation in Germany: 1960–1985 by Christine Sauer


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